Poll pits Ledford vs Sharon Runner

This story appeared in the Antelope Valley Press July 11, 2001.

By BOB WILSON
Valley Press Staff Writer

PALMDALE - Sharon Runner, wife of Assemblyman George Runner, R-Lancaster, could defeat Palmdale Mayor Jim Ledford in a race for the 36th Assembly District, according to a poll commissioned by a Sacramento campaign-consulting firm that has done work for the Runners in the past.

Runner said she was "flattered I did so well" in the poll, conducted June 11 and 12 by Competitive Edge Research and Communications of San Diego.

Ledford said the news wasn't all that flattering.

"Polls can say whatever you want them to say," said Ledford, noting that the results were released by the same firm George Runner hired in 1995 to handle planning and publicity for his first bid for the 36th District seat.

According to the poll, Runner's name drew a favorable response from 35.2% of those questioned, compared to an unfavorable response from 1.7%.

The information showed Ledford with an unfavorable response of 11%, but it did not include information on the favorable response Ledford's name generated among those questioned.

Ledford's name was recognized by nearly 50% of those questioned, while Runner's was recognized by about 35%, the poll showed.

Without indicating how many potential candidates were included in the poll, respondents in Palmdale gave Ledford 44% of the vote, compared to 31% for Runner.

In Lancaster, respondents gave Runner 47% of the vote and Ledford 25%.

Overall, Runner was expected to outdistance Ledford by a margin of 40% to 33%, according to Gilliard Blanning and Associates, the firm that commissioned the survey.

"Among very conservative voters, who make up almost 40% of the electorate in the 36th District, Runner beats Ledford by 19 points, 48% to 29%," the consultants said.

The poll of 409 voters was described as having a 4.8% margin of error.

Gilliard Blanning and Associates also produces the "Non-Partisan Candidate Evaluation Council Voter Guide," a statewide slate mailer that supports election of social conservatives.

Assemblyman Runner used Gilliard Blanning's slate mailer in the November 1999 election to promote a number of conservative candidates running for seats on the Palmdale City Council and the Palmdale and AV College boards of education.

Backing not disclosed

Reached Tuesday, partner Natalie Blanning declined to disclose who paid for the poll, saying it was against company policy to reveal client information.

Sharon Runner also said the poll was taken at the behest of "a group of people."

"I'm not sure who paid for it. I knew my name was going to be included," she said.

Attempts to reach representatives of Competitive Edge were unsuccessful late Tuesday. A recorded message said the firm had been involved in "polling, voter contact and grass-roots lobbying for campaigns and organizations since 1987."

Runner is a veteran political operative in her own right.

"People have been talking to me for a long time about what I might do," said Runner, who worked as the Antelope Valley spearhead to help elect President George W. Bush in November.

"People in the Bush campaign have been looking for conservative Republican women" to run for office, she said. "Some of those people have been pushing me toward that goal."

"It's always been possible I would run for something at some point," she said. "I've been active in politics for a long time."

Ledford countered there is experience and experience - and that elected experience counts most.

`Hillary dynamic'

"I don't know how you could take someone with no experience in local government and say they are going to represent our Valley," Ledford said.

Runner's only public service has been as a member of the AV Fair Board, he said.

"Organizing a barbecue is probably great, but I'm not sure how it represents the interests of the 36th District," Ledford said. "This is a case of someone with very little experience seeking to capture the recognition of her husband. It's like the Hillary Clinton dynamic."

Runner noted that name recognition carries its own advantages.

"There is a lot to say about name I.D.," Runner said, noting the recent successes in Los Angeles politics by the Hahn family and nationally by the Bushes.

If a name carries a good reputation, "I think that's great. There are no negatives to that," she said. "That's an advantage. I don't see any disadvantages."

As for experience, she has put years of effort into her work at Desert Christian School, founded by Runner and her husband, and into the Runner Group, a marketing and public relations firm that helped persuade voters to cast ballots in favor of construction of a new Wal-Mart on the east side of Palmdale in November 2000.

Ledford said he is skeptical about any survey that does not give ample description of its methodology.

"If her last name was Jones, I doubt we'd even be talking about this," Ledford said, noting that poll results "depend on the questions and how they are asked and what you intend the results to be."

Any oncoming potential contest that pits Ledford against any politician named Runner underscores lines of division within local Republican ranks. Ledford is GOP, but generally nonideological, while Runner is a staunch social conservative.

Also, Runner's presumed strength emanates from the Lancaster area, a stronghold of socially conservative voters. Ledford retains his popularity in Palmdale and the south end of the Valley, where a mix of Republicans and Democrats reside.

"If you ask what the position of the average Republican voter is, I think they're concerned that the (Grand Old) Party is not the big tent that everyone portrays it to be," Ledford said.

Efforts to keep the party the exclusive domain of social conservatives "has hurt our efforts" to broaden GOP appeal, Ledford added.

Essentially, Ledford assessed that being Sharon Runner does not equate to running as George Runner.

"I find it very ambitious to take the name of your husband and think you can win elected office," Ledford said. "A good question is why Santa Clarita was not included in the poll."

Santa Clarita was excluded from the polling sample because in some formulations it may be removed from the 36th Assembly District when the redistricting process is completed this year, Runner said.